When can I retire?
Five inputs, an instant answer. Drag the sliders and watch the year you can retire move.
Your inputs
The classic range — the 4% rule comes from the Trinity study’s 30-year success rates.
Your answer
You hit your number in
29 years
That's the year 2055, when you're 64.
This is a one-line projection.
Real retirement math has tax brackets, Social Security, real-estate equity, debts, healthcare, RMDs, and Monte Carlo uncertainty. Granary models all of that.
Get the full picture →How this calculator works
We project your savings forward month by month using the contribution and return rate you set. Each month, the existing portfolio grows by 1/12 of the annual return, and your contribution gets added on top. We stop projecting when the portfolio hits your target — the amount you can withdraw from at your safe withdrawal rate without running out.
Target portfolio = annual spending ÷ withdrawal rate.If you spend $5,000/month ($60,000/year) and use a 4% safe withdrawal rate, you need $1,500,000 invested. The 4% rule comes from the Trinity Study (Cooley, Hubbard, Walz, 1998) which found that a 4% initial withdrawal, adjusted for inflation, survived 30 years in 95%+ of historical scenarios. That's why a higher rate shows an earlier date here: a higher withdrawal rate doesn't make retirement cheaper — it bets your money runs out slower than you do.
What this calculator doesn't model
- Taxes. The big one. Roth and traditional accounts have very different effective spend rates because of how withdrawals are taxed.
- Social Security. $2-4k/month of inflation-adjusted income meaningfully shifts your number.
- Real estate equity. Your home isn't in this calculation, but it counts toward net worth.
- Inflation. Our number assumes today's dollars throughout. Real markets need 2-3% real returns above inflation, not nominal.
- Sequence-of-returns risk. A bad first decade hits much harder than a bad later decade. Monte Carlo simulation captures this; a single line doesn't.
- Health costs. Medicare doesn't cover everything; LTC at 80+ can be $10k/month.
Granary models all of these. If your number here looks scary or optimistic, the most useful next step is the full-app projection that accounts for the variables this page can't.